AIOS Methodology

How The Envelope produces the AIOS composite score, the setup archetypes, the 20-day probability, and the confidence and downside-risk reads shown across the app. These pages describe properties of the data; nothing here is investment advice.

What AIOS is

AIOS scores a security by combining 18 weighted signal blocks, among them momentum, fundamentals, analyst sentiment, earnings revisions, news flow, institutional flow, insider activity, liquidity, sector momentum, event catalysts, the macro backdrop, short-side dynamics and smart-money accumulation, into a single composite score from 0 to 100. The score describes the current state of those signals; it is not a price target and not a recommendation.

Coverage universe & schedule

The composite is computed across a coverage universe of US-listed securities, rebuilt from the screener universe and recalculated every weekday at 23:30 UTC. The ranking surfaces (Top AIOS Scores) show the highest composite scores from that run; the run timestamp is shown on each surface.

Setup archetypes

Each ranked name is tagged with a mechanical setup archetype. The tag is assigned deterministically, never by discretion: the score-weighted contribution of each block family is summed, and the leading family names the archetype only when it accounts for at least 30% of the total contribution. When no family reaches that threshold the setup is labelled Broad strength.

Quality compounder: fundamentals, earnings quality, earnings revisions
Momentum breakout: momentum, market relative strength, sector momentum
Value dislocation: valuation dislocation
Smart-money accumulation: smart-money accumulation, institutional flow, insider activity
Sentiment & flow: news flow, short-side dynamics, order flow
Broad strength: no single family ≥ 30% of contribution

20-day probability, P(up·20d)

P(up·20d) is a calibrated statistical mapping of the raw composite score onto a 0–100% figure, fitted with a logistic model, sigmoid(a + b · composite), and recalibrated weekly against realized 20-day outcomes. It expresses how names with a similar composite have historically behaved over 20 trading days. It is a calibration statistic, not a prediction, a guarantee, or advice, and the realized calibration is weak enough that it should be read only as a ranking aid, never as a standalone signal.

Confidence

“Confidence” everywhere in the app means the same thing: how broad and internally consistent the underlying data behind a read is, how many signals confirm each other, or how many names cross a detection threshold together. It is a statistical / detection confidence, never the probability that a move, trend or perception will continue.

Conviction

“Conviction” is a mechanical summary of how many of the model’s own bars a name clears: the composite score itself, the confidence in the data behind it, and how much of the signal set carried real rather than fallback data. It is computed from fixed thresholds, with no discretionary input.

High requires all three to hold at once: a composite above 70, confidence above 70%, and more than 80% of blocks carrying real data. Medium requires a composite above 55 and confidence above 50%. Low covers everything that does not clear the Medium bar. Because the High conditions must hold simultaneously, that tier is rare by construction.

Conviction describes the state of the signals and the completeness of the data behind them. It is not a recommendation, a price target, or a statement about what the security will do next.

Downside risk

The downside-risk read (shown as low / moderate / elevated) is a signal-derived measure of deterioration in the same blocks that build the composite. It describes the current risk profile of the signals; it is not a sell instruction.

Conflicts of interest

The Envelope S.R.L. is a financial information and analytics provider. It does not act as a market maker, does not receive compensation tied to any security appearing in its rankings, and does not take proprietary positions in the securities it scores. Data is sourced from third-party market-data vendors. Any change to this statement will be reflected on this page.

The 18 signal blocks and their weights

Educational analytics, not investment advice. Produced by The Envelope S.R.L.

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